The MBA does a great job in planning sessions, and in selecting a location where lenders and their mortgage bankers can meet.

The convention takes place at the beginning of the year, so that the lenders can articulate their goals, which allows immediate feedback from the mortgage bankers; and gives the mortgage bankers direction in their match-making between the lenders and the borrower.

It also allows me to test drive my earlier 2012 forecast for the commercial real estate finance market.

The mood at the MBA-CREF convention this year is very workmanlike. This is not the “we’re back” chant of prior years. For positive lending, the view is that

  • new commercial mortgage lending in ’12 will mirror ’11

This mirrors the same message I heard last week in Dallas from several commercial mortgage workout managers.  Like the loan producers here at the MBA-CREF convention, the distressed mortgage servicers know they’ve resolve a lot of loans, but they’re not finished.  For distressed mortgage debt, the view is that

  • the inventory of distressed commercial real estate in ’12 will mirror ’11
My forecast was spot on.
 
Let’s get back to work.
 
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